Daily Gold Update

Source:Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

AustinGold tumbled 2.2% to close under $1,473, the lowest level in two months, as rising risk appetite, falling oil, and a stronger dollar combined with technical selling to push prices down through stop-loss orders. The metal still closed the third quarter with a gain of 3.4%, driven by trade-war worries and easier money from central banks.

The Dow and S&P 500 both gained 0.6% and Nasdaq added 0.8% after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro denied that the Trump administration is planning to delist Chinese stocks from US exchanges. Reports of the planned delisting surfaced on Friday, causing investors to shed risk.

The dollar rose 0.3% against major rivals as global political uncertainty and the deepening US-China trade war continues to push Forex investors toward safe-haven currencies. A stronger dollar pressures gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them more expensive overseas.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell another 3.3% to just above $54 per barrel after Saudi Aramco reported its production capacity has returned to the same level as before the crippling attacks on its facilities earlier this month. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Gold's sharp fall today was driven in part by technical trading as long-contract futures speculators repositioned for the end of the quarter, triggering stop-loss orders that built on themselves. In addition, the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed for the Golden Week National Holiday, removing a counterweight to Western futures speculation.

UBS has increased its gold forecast for the second time in less than two months. The conservative Swiss bank is projecting prices as high as $1,730 an ounce next year, which is $50 higher than its August forecast of $1,680. Negative real interest rates, looser monetary policies from global central banks, slowing growth, and rising trade uncertainty should drive gold higher in the coming year, according to the UBS report.

The other precious metals were lower for the day but higher for the quarter. Silver fell 3.7% but still rose 10% in Q3. Platinum dropped 5% today but rose 4% this quarter. Palladium slipped 0.3% on the day but climbed nearly 8% for the quarter.

At the Comex close: December gold tumbled $33.50 to 1,472.90; December silver lost 65 cents to $16.99; January platinum dropped $46.90 to $889.20; and December palladium slid $5.40 to $1,647.50 an ounce.