Daily Gold Update

Source:Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

AustinNew York spot gold rallied another 1.1% to close at a new record high above $3,780 as soft US data geopolitical turmoil spurred safe-haven inflows while rate-cut expectations pressured the dollar and Treasury yields. Gold futures surged above $3,800 for the first time ever. Silver climbed 0.9% to finish at $44.19 an ounce.

Anew S&P Global survey showed US business activity weakened in September. Services companies, which employ around 70% of Americans, slid to a three-month low in September. Separately, US manufacturing, the sector most affected by tariffs, slid to a two-month low. Input prices rose across both sectors, with respondents saying tariffs were the cause.

All three major US stock indexes retreated on souring risk appetite. The Dow fell 0.3% while the S&P 500 lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq close to 1%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields eroded toward 4.1% as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dipped 0.1% against major rivals under continuing pressure from a dovish rate view following last week's Fed meeting. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities priced in it for international trading by making them cheaper in other currencies.

The Fed cut rates by a quarter point and, as important, outlined two more similar cuts this year. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 94% likelihood of an October cut, followed by a 78% chance of another in December.

Adding to safe-haven inflows, the chances of a government shutdown on September 30 escalated after President Trump cancelled a meeting with Demcrat lawmakers, saying it "couldn�t possibly be productive."

And NATO warned Russia that it would aggressively defend itself against repeated violations of the airspace of Estonia, a member nation.

Platinum and palladium picked up 4.1% and 2.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $39.90 to $3,780.60; silver rose 39 cents to $44.19; platinum picked up $60.40 to $1,485.25; and palladium climbed $33.40 to $1,227.15 an ounce.